内达华州2012年博彩行业预测

　　普华永道国际会计公司的会计分析师在本周公布了他们对2012年博彩行业的预测报告。该公司预计2010年内华达州的博彩收入将为104亿美元，也有可能为至107亿美元。另外他们还预计2015年内华达州的博彩收入将达130亿美元，此预测结果与他们在2007年的预测基本一致。这是内达华州赌场在经济衰退前最高的博彩收入。

　　这个数字代表了4.9％的年增长率，相比之下，一年前普华永道预计的增长率为4.1％。

　　“根据2010年（0.1％的增长）增长势头，我们预计内达华州的博彩市场在2011年将增长2.8％”，普华永道国际会计公司在去年的预测报告中如此表示。

　　对于内华达州在未来数年博彩收益，普华永道的预测是积极的，其分析师预计，2012年和2013年的博彩增长率分别4.6％、4.1％，而2012年和2013年的博彩税收入增长率分别为2.5％、2.7％。

　　尽管普华永道预计内华达州赌场有较高的收入增长速度，但内华达州在美国总价值575亿的游戏市场份额却有所下降。而到2015年，内华达州赌场不仅需要面对来自亚洲的竞争，还要应付美国区域内的赌场竞争，如马萨诸塞州和佛罗里达州。

　　普华永道的数据显示内华达州的市场份额不断下降，从2010年的18％到2015年会下降至17.66％。

　　普华永道在报告中说：“内达华州的博彩业运营商始终面临着拉斯维加斯赌城的竞争和威胁”。

　　普华永道在报告中还指出：“在亚太地区出现逐渐出现了度假胜地赌场，以前度假胜地赌场通常只在澳门和美国两个地区。目前已有不少知名的博彩公司转向海外移部分博彩业务，内达华州的博彩业务将不同程度地受到影响。”

　　在其他问题上，普华永道报告还预测，美国作为目前世界上最大的赌场市场，有可能在2013年被亚洲所超越。

　　普华永道的预测报告还表示，预测在线赌博行业就好像盲人摸象，目前还没有适用于该市场的预测模式。普华永道还评论道：因为目前网络赌博游戏的法律基础尚未确定，这使得网络赌博行业前景难以被评估和预测。但可以确定的是，各国政府和监管机构绝对需要建立确定性的法律法规，以维护消费者的权益，同时确保这一行业向国家缴纳赋税。这可能需要几年时间，但未来一定会实现。

　　译文

　　Analysts project brighter 2012 for casino industry

　　Analysts at accounting firm PwC have boosted their growth projection for Nevada’s casino industry.

　　In the PwC （PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP） annual gaming forecast distributed this week, the firm projected Nevada gaming win of $10.4 billion in 2010 to reach $10.7 billion this year and then expand to just shy of $13 billion by 2015.

　　The 2015 projection would about equal the level reached in 2007 — the high-water mark for Nevada casinos before the recession.

　　That figure represents an annual growth rate of 4.9 percent. By comparison, PwC a year ago projected an annual growth of 4.1 percent over five years.

　　“The momentum generated in 2010 （a 0.1 percent increase） is carrying over in 2011 and we project that the market will increase by 2.8 percent for 2011 as a whole,” PwC said in its report.

　　The PwC forecast for Nevada gaming revenue in the next few years is aggressive, with its analysts expecting growth of 4.1 percent in 2012 and 4.6 percent in 2013. Projections for gaming taxes in the state budget, in comparison, are for growth of 2.5 percent in fiscal year 2012 and 2.7 percent in fiscal year 2013.

　　Despite the higher projected growth rate in Nevada casino revenue, PwC expects Nevada’s share of the $57.5 billion U.S. gaming market to decline slightly through 2015 because of competition from Asia and as regional casinos pop up in populous U.S. markets such as Massachusetts and potentially Florida.

　　PwC numbers show Nevada’s market share declining from 18 percent in 2010 to 17.66 percent in 2015.

　　“The steel skeletons of uncompleted developments still scar the Las Vegas skyline, and operators are facing the residual effects of high unemployment in California,” PwC said in the report.

　　“The emergence of major resort casinos in Asia Pacific — often （as in Macau） operated by U.S.-based companies — will divert some of the U.S.’s overseas-derived business to that region. As the U.S.’s major international casino gaming center, Nevada will be disproportionately affected. Consequently, even when the economy returns to healthy growth, we do not expect Nevada to record increases comparable to prior gains achieved during periods of economic expansion,” this week’s report said.

　　On other issues, PwC said it expects the U.S. casino market, currently the world’s largest, to be overtaken by Asia in 2013.

　　And the “elephant in the room” is online gaming, said PwC, which didn’t offer an estimate for the size of that market.

　　“The fog of uncertainty that surrounds the size, scope, and often the legal basis of online gaming makes it hard to assess its current and future impacts, or to plan strategies around it,” PwC commented. “What is clear is that the elephant in the room is not going to go away. Governments and regulators have an absolute need to create certainty and consumer protection around online gaming, while ensuring this activity is fairly taxed. This may take years, but it must eventually happen.”