金融危机下，澳门的赌博资本在流动

　　中国银行为了应对全球金融危机在仅仅四个月的时间里就创造了一个巨大的资金流动，但这些救市资金很可能流向澳门赌场，成为亚洲赌博资本。

　　前葡萄牙殖民地的一些观察家说，北京目前所实行的经济刺激政策与澳门百家乐赌桌上的赌注之间存在关联性。

　　以消费为重点的刺激经济计划开始形成一股趋势，已经出现在该地区的其他地方。澳大利亚政府的发放现金的经济刺激政策，正在促使该国家的扑克收入迅速增加。使用纳税人的钱资助博彩行业，这给赌博监管机构敲响了警钟，健全赌博监管机构成为迫在眉睫的事情之一。

　　在澳门，刺激资金的效果已经显现，阻止了博彩收益的下降。分析师曾表示，中国的5860亿美元的部分救市资金很可能会以形式流入赌场，而且效果可能要与预期的表现得更加明显。其效果可能更引人注目，如果中国放宽签证限制的话。目前中国政府限制大陆游客每年只能办理4次签证手续。澳门某家大赌场的一名管理人员说，中国政府会很快放宽签证限制。

　　澳门的赌场营业额在一月份达到其最低点，在中国大陆的贷款增长的刺激下，此不景气的经营现象已经开始扭转。北京为刺激毗邻澳门的广东身，也作出了具体的努力。全广东省的经济状况也开始回归到工业经济繁荣时期。这也被认为是澳门扭转赌场低迷的经营状况的一个重要原因。

　　然而信贷的增长步伐甚至连中国官方也都感到惊讶。信贷危机看似牢不可破，数以万计的工厂纷纷倒闭。在今年初，政府给银行设定了新的全年发放贷款5万亿元（445亿美元）的贷款指标。截至四月底，新的贷款余额接近六万亿人民币。经济学家已经开始提出警示，资本的爆炸性供应可能会在未来产生一系列不良的贷款问题。

　　券商里昂证券分析师亚伦菲舍尔说，这股巨大的资金流动就像一股巨大的洪水，对澳门的博彩业来说尤其如此，澳门赌场那些所谓的VIP客户，即狂赌者的巨额投注约占80％的博彩收益。他重要的结论是，当我们开始看到金融市场和实体经济恢复信心，贵宾也有信心返回赌桌。

　　瑞士信贷的分析师加布里埃尔说，前所未有的信贷速度会特别有效，对于在信贷危机中遭受打击的博彩中介人业务的重建来说。贷款的增长，他认为，增加了来自内地旅行团游客的数量，这是一个意外的经济刺激效果。由于中国整体流动性因为贷款的增长而提高，中介人运营商也可能会发现至关重要的赌资借贷期限从30天缩减为金融危机前的10天。

　　译文：

　　A huge pool of liquidity, created in only four months by the Chinese banking industry in an all-out attempt to fight the global financial crisis, may be flowing towards the casinos of Macau, the gambling capital of Asia.

　　Close observers of the giant gaming houses that dominate the former Portuguese colony say that there is a definite correlation between Beijingefforts to stimulate its economy and the amount now being bet on the baccarat tables of Macau.

　　The same trend has begun to emerge elsewhere in the region as consumer-focused stimulus packages have made their mark. Australiagovernment stimulus cash handouts prompted a rapid increase in income for the countrypoker machines, a taxpayer-funded boom that caused gambling watchdogs to sound alarm bells.

　　In Macau, the effect of the stimulus money has been to arrest a decline in gaming revenues. Analysts had said that a proportion of China$586 billion （拢356 billion） stimulus package would find its way into the casinoscages, but the effect has been far more dramatic than expected. The effect is likely to become even more striking if China relaxes visa restrictions that limit mainland visitors to four trips a year. An executive at one of Macaubig casinos said that the restrictions may be unofficially relaxed soon.

　　A slump in chip turnover that reached its nadir in January has started to reverse and is following a similar path to loan growth rates in mainland China. Specific efforts by Beijing to stimulate a return to the industrial boom times in Guangdong, the province adjacent to Macau, are thought to have had a role.

　　Yet it is the pace of loan growth that appears to have surprised even the Chinese authorities. At the start of the year, with the credit crisis seemingly unbreakable and with tens of thousands of factories closing, the Government set the banks a combined new loan target of five trillion yuan （拢445 billion） for the whole of 2009. By the end of April, new loans stood close to six trillian yuan and economists have begun to warn that the explosive supply of capital may create a crippling bad loan problem in the future.

　　The sheer flood of new liquidity, Aaron Fischer, gaming analyst at CLSA, the broker, said, bodes especially well for a recovery in the Macau gaming habits of the so-called VIP customers, the high-rollers whose vast bets represent about 80 per cent of Magaming revenues. he important conclusion is that as we start to see confidence return to financial markets and the real economy, confidence will return and so will VIP play,Mr Fischer said.

　　The unprecedented velocity of credit creation will be especially useful in rebuilding the revenue-rich junket operations that suffered during the credit crisis, Gabriel Chan, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said. Loan growth, he argued, has boosted the number of package tour visitors from the mainland as an unintended 鈥渟pillovereffect of the stimulus. As overall Chinese liquidity improves because of the loan growth, junket operators may also find their all-important credit collection periods shrinking from 30 days towards the pre-crisis level of ten.