预测诺贝尔文学奖得主的博彩赔率

　　2009年的诺贝尔文学奖在一个周四公布，而英国的最大博彩公司立博博彩（Lacbrokes）总会开始提前下注。占据赔率榜首的是Amos Oz，以色列作家兼政治活动家，他是近几年来一直极有可能获奖的候选人。2004年，David Remnick在《纽约客》上写道：

　　他是这样的一个人——有着雄辩的口才，自由的思想，基布兹海报男孩一样俊美的样貌——这些吸引着诸多的人们去阅读他的作品。Oz并不关心他的广受欢迎，而他总觉得自己脱离了自己的信众。

　　Remnick认为尽管Oz已是以色列左翼力量中的老牌斗士，但许多欧洲人都认为他比较保守。这在诺贝尔评委会那里是一个不太妙的信号——近年来，诺贝尔评委一直饱受批评，公众认为它在美学面前展示了太多的极左政治。

　　同时，立博博彩觉得这可能是美国人获封诺贝尔的最佳年头。Joyce Carol Oates位居5:1赔率的头位，接下来是Philip Roth（7:1），Thomas Pynchon（9:1），另外还有Don DeLillo（25:1）——他去年的赔率是7:1，应该是美国获提名者中的榜首。1993年Toni Morrison之后，美国就再也没有过诺贝尔文学奖获得者，而今年，有几个值得期待的因素。英国知识界对美国的态度有所缓和；诺贝尔评委会也许还在后悔，没能授予约翰·厄普代克该奖项——他与今年一月过世，失去了授奖资格；此外去年由于诺贝尔常物秘书长Horace Engdahl表示美国“过于孤立、过于隔离”无法在英语文学用获得显耀地位，而受到了人们的强烈抗议。也许评委会希望做出调整。

　　如果要从美国人中选出获奖者，他们应该会考虑Bob Dylan，他的立博赔率三年来翻了好几番，从2007年的500:1到了今年的25:1。（有没有立博里知道内幕的家伙？）

　　可话说回来，也许不是这么回事。去年的得主Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clézio的赔率是14:1，远没有获奖的可能，而2007年的桂冠摘得者Doris Lessing甚至都没在当年的榜单上。主要从事体育赌博，偶尔兼顾一下政治和文化博彩的立博兴许都是庸人当道吧。今年的榜单上还登载了几个拼错的名字——“Umberto Ecco”，“Jonathan Little”，“Antoni Tabucchi”（上面就是这么写的），甚至还把西班牙作家Luis Goytisolo和他大名鼎鼎的哥哥Juan搞混了。

　　不管怎样，对于那些想获大利的下注者来说，100:1赔率中还有很多有名气的人物，比如说John Banville，Paul Auster，William H. Gass，Julian Barnes，Ian McEwan，还有Cormac McCarthy。

　　译文：

　　Ladbrokes, the largest bookmaker in the United Kingdom, has handicapped the 2009 Nobel Prize in Literature, which will be announced this Thursday. This year's favorite at 4/1 （as of Sunday evening）： Amos Oz, the Israeli author and political activist, who has been on Nobel speculators' short-lists for many years. In 2004, David Remnick wrote of Oz in the magazine:

　　There is something about him—the lofty eloquence, the liberal opinions, the kibbutz-poster-boy good looks—that continues to draw crowds to his readings. Oz does not mind the attention, but he invariably finds himself out of step with his audiences.

　　Remnick argues that while Oz is an old lion on the Israeli left, he's considered conservative by many in Europe. That's a bad sign for his chances with the Nobel committee, which has been accused in recent years of putting far-left politics before aesthetics.

　　Meanwhile, Ladbrokes thinks it may be a good year for Americans. Joyce Carol Oates tops the list at 5/1, followed by Philip Roth （7/1）， Thomas Pynchon （9/1）， and Don DeLillo （25/1）， who, having fallen from 7/1 last year, may be the best value on the board. Several factors cheer those hoping for the first American Nobel laureate since Toni Morrison won in 1993. Attitudes toward the U.S. among European intellectuals have softened somewhat; the Nobel committee may regret missing its chance to honor John Updike, who became ineligible upon his death in January; and then there's the backlash from the statement last year by the Nobel secretary, Horace Engdahl, that the U.S. is "too isolated, too insular" to occupy a central role in English-language literature. Perhaps the committee will want to make amends.

　　If they're looking for an American, they could chose Bob Dylan, whose Ladbrokes odds have skyrocketed over the past three years, from 500/1 in 2007 to 25/1 this year. （Do the folks at Ladbrokes know something we don't?）

　　Then again, maybe not. Last year's winner, Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clézio, was a long shot at 14/1, and the 2007 laureate, Doris Lessing, wasn't even included on that year's rolls. And it seems that Ladbrokes, which primarily offers sports odds with the occasional political or cultural curiosity mixed in, may be staffed by philistines. This year's list features several misspelled names—"Umberto Ecco," "Jonathan Little," "Antoni Tabucchi" [sic, sic, sic]—and even transposes Spanish writer Luis Goytisolo for his far more prominent brother Juan.