博彩与奢侈品，中国人的最爱

　　中国人对博彩和奢侈品的喜爱使这两个消费部门的营收大幅增长。里昂证券认为，鉴于这两个行业的壁垒较高，这种增长趋势可能还将持续。

　　里昂证券消费与博彩业研究主管艾伦·费舍尔（Aaron Fischer）表示，去年博彩业的营收增长45%，在过去9年里年均增长17%。所有六家博彩公司——银河娱乐（Galaxy Entertainment）、新濠博亚（Melco Crown）、美高梅中国（MGM China）、金沙中国（Sands China）、澳门博彩控股（SJM Holdings）和永利澳门（Wynn Macau）——的股票评级都是“买入”，预计它们的股价将在今后12个月里上涨59%至108%。

　　中国政府对这六家公司的新赌场建设进行了限制。“我们认为，对拥有赌场经营牌照的公司来说，就像是获得了印钞许可。”费舍尔周三在里昂证券投资者论坛上说：“（中国）巨大的博彩需求被压抑已久，现在将集中爆发。”

　　谢尔登·阿德尔森（Sheldon Adelson）的金沙中国有限公司计划在明年初斥资40亿美元，在澳门金光大道地块5和地块6上开设一个推迟已久的赌场度假村。由香港富豪吕志和掌控的银河娱乐公司已于今年5月开设了耗资20亿美元的银河澳门赌场度假村。

　　永利澳门、澳门博彩控股和美高梅中国也都申请在同一地区兴建赌场度假村的许可。金光大道已经发展成为了澳门的娱乐中心。在澳门主岛的赌场里，更有可能发现那些挥金如土的VIP赌徒。

　　在奢侈品方面，费舍尔表示，中国国内品牌无法与路易威登、爱马仕和香奈儿这样的外国品牌比肩，后者都各具特色，而且拥有100多年的悠久历史。

　　里昂证券预计，中国需求将在今后10年里推动全球奢侈品市场的发展。如果把国内和国外消费都考虑在内，那么包括中国大陆、香港和澳门在内的大中华区目前占到了全球奢侈品市场份额的15%。费舍尔预测，这个数字将在今后10年内上升到44%。

　　译文：

　　China’s affinity for gambling and luxury goods has made those two consumer sectors the best performing in terms of revenue growth, and CLSA believes that trend is likely to continue in light of the barriers to entry for both industries.

　　Gambling revenue is expected to grow 45% this year and average 17% over the next nine years, according to Aaron Fischer, CLSA’s head of consumer and gaming research. The brokerage has “buy” ratings for all six operators—Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Crown, MGM China, Sands China, SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau—and expects their shares to rise between 59% and 108% in the next 12 months.

　　The government restricts the supply of new casinos among the six operators. “For those companies that have casino licenses, we think it’s like a license to print money,” Fischer said on Wednesday during a presentation at CLSA’s investor forum. “You have all this huge pent-up demand for gaming [in China] that’s all funneled to just one point.”

　　Sheldon Adelson’s Sands China plans to open a much-delayed, $4 billion casino resort in Macau’s Cotai area, known as sites 5 and 6, early next year. Galaxy Entertainment, controlled by the Hong Kong billionaire Lui Che Woo, opened the $2 billion casino resort Galaxy Macau in May this year.

　　Wynn Macau, SJM and MGM China are all seeking permission to build casino resorts in the same area. The Cotai Strip has been developing into Macau’s entertainment center, whereas the hardcore VIP gamblers are more likely to be found at the casinos on the main peninsula of the former Portuguese colony.

　　On the luxury side, Fischer said Chinese companies won’t be able to develop domestic brands on the same level as the likes of Louis Vuitton, Hermes and Chanel, which are all very exclusive and have a heritage that dates back over 100 years.

　　CLSA expects Chinese demand to drive growth for the global luxury market over the next decade. Greater China, which includes China, Hong Kong and Macau, currently accounts for 15% of the total market when taking into account spending domestically as well as overseas, but Fischer forecasts that will rise to 44% in the next ten years.