买国家彩票以缓解个人财政危机是否可行？

　　我已经开始买国家彩票了，试图解决我目前逐渐恶化的财政状况，虽然我不知道自己是否能获奖，但我在想，如果我坚持买相同号码而不是随机购买，我中奖的机率会不会更大呢？我给向一位经济专家求助，下面是他给我的回复：

　　亲爱的彼得：

　　看来你设想了一个很有意思的情境，好比你是一个走丢的小孩，而开奖机就是父母，辛苦地找寻你。这种情境所蕴含的，就是所谓“会合点问题”。一般而言，呆在原地让开奖机找你，对你更有利一些。

　　由于你买的彩票每期约有1400万种号码组合，开奖机平均找700万次可找到你一次，如果你每周玩两次，那差不多是67000年。如果接连玩135000年，开奖机就保证能找到你。但如果是随机选号，就根本没有保证找到这一说，而且据言语乏味的数学家们说，瞎碰运气所需的平均时间也更长，保不准要100000年。

　　不过，姑且不论人是不是能活35000年，更头疼的是开奖机根本没在找你。它对之前开出的号码组合没有记忆，所以每次开奖，1400万组号码被选中的几率都一样（低）。随机选号，或者选自己的生日……对你的中奖机会毫无影响，只是如果你选一个人们不常选的号码，可以降低万一中奖后与别人分享奖金的可能性。

　　鉴于你读本专栏时间还不长，我在此重复一下我的建议，怎样能既体验博彩的刺激又不必当傻子。号码照选，但别买彩票。这样你基本上每周都能赢回彩票钱——只不过万一哪天真开出了你的号码呢？这种担心立马就会冲上你的脑门儿，让我的话变作耳旁风。

　　译文

　　I have started playing the national lottery in an attempt to resolve my worsening financial situation. While I am aware of the improbability of winning, I was wondering if I would improve my chances by sticking with the same numbers rather than using the randomly generated “quick pick”。

　　Peter, Canada

　　Dear Peter,

　　You seem to have a rather charming scenario in mind, with you playing the role of a little lost child, and the lottery machine playing the role of parent, diligently searching for you. This is called a “rendezvous problem”， and, in general, you would be better off staying where you are and letting the lottery machine find you.

　　With almost 14 million combinations to try, this would take, on average, seven million attempts – about 67,000 years if you play twice a week. Success would be guaranteed after 135,000 years. If you choose your numbers at random, however, success is never guaranteed, and tame mathematicians tell me that the average time to strike lucky is also longer – perhaps 100,000 years or so.

　　But whether you can shave 35,000 years off is beside the point. The lottery machine is not trying to find your number. It has no memory of previous combinations, and is equally （un）likely to pick any of the 14 million. Pick at random, write down your birthday … it makes no difference to your chance of winning – although if you write down unusual numbers, it will minimise the likelihood that if you win, you’ll have to share your prize.

　　In case you are not a long-time reader, I will repeat my advice as to how to enjoy the thrill of the lottery without the fool’s bet. Choose your numbers, but don’t buy a ticket. You’ll win almost every week – the fear that your number might actually come up is an adrenaline rush to beat them all.