谁动了庄家的奶酪

　　全世界的专业足球博彩机构都在欣欣向荣地高速发展当中，这是人们以往的共识。然而在我们的调查当中却发现，原来并非如此。

　　从表面看来，1998年世界杯之后，全球足球博彩业的发展速度是惊人的，也许是实力壮大得最快的一个行业。但一位曾经在某外围庄工作过的圈内人士G透露了另一个说法：“从整个行业来看，足球博彩业的增幅是非常可观的，但如果说那些真正老牌的外围庄家也发展了，这种说法就不准确，相反，他们的营业额一直都在痿缩。”G列举了他所知道的一组数据：“从2002年世界杯以后，澳门、印尼、马来西亚等亚洲五大外围庄事实上是一年不如一年。比赛越开越多，营业额却一年比一年少，平均每年的跌幅都在5%以上，最高的甚至超过10%。

　　G的说法并非是一面之辞。在大力打击地下赌球的大环境之下，许多外围大庄原来的二级大客户或是原中高层工作人员都自立门户，他们在南亚一些法律管理宽松或并不禁止赌球的国家和地区注册公司，并独立研发网上投注系统，在中国大陆等地的很多城市直接设立办事处和各级下线，形成了一个网络庞大组织严密的博彩网。每一级下线既可以自己坐庄，也可以给上线报单层层抽水。在这些地下的庄家那里，最高的返还率可以达到95%，而像澳门至今也不过在85%-90%之间。客户就这样分流了。

　　所以又有一种说法是：外围大庄在本届世界杯中的亏损其实并没有人们想象中的那样大，他们故意使比赛失去控制，以达到打击地下黑庄的目的。这一说法只能姑妄听之，理由有二。一，从庄家淘汰赛以来的操盘和我们的调查来看，庄家的亏损肯定是一个天文数字，对以赢利为唯一目的的博彩机构来说，这样的损失已经伤了元气，不是一两年能够恢复的；二，也许有一半以上的地下庄家已经破产消失了，但仍有很多在坚持，并且肯定还会有新的资金注入，有新的庄家出现。

　　所以，对专业公司来说极不正常的本届比赛究竟是怎么回事？正如1998年决赛法国3：0狂胜巴西一样，可能永远将以一个谜的形式存在。不过客观上已经存在的现实至少决定了一种倾向：在本届世界杯之后，足球博彩业会掀起一场全球性的“洗牌”运动，只有那些实力雄厚，拥有专业分析团队的超大型公司会笑到最后。

　　译文：

　　Bankers who moved the cheese

　　Professional football betting agencies around the world are thriving to the rapid development, this is the consensus of people in the past. However, our investigation has discovered that this was not the case.

　　On the surface, the global soccer gaming industry’s growth rate is staggering on the 1998 World Cup, perhaps one of the fastest growing power industry. But one who has worked in a village outside the insiders G said another statement: "From the industrial point of view, football has a very substantial increase in the gaming industry, but if true veteran of the bookmakers who have developed this statement is not accurate, on the contrary, their turnover would have been reduced in atrophy. "G lists a set of data he knows:" After the World Cup in 2002, Macau, Indonesia, Malaysia and other Asian village outside the fact that five is year after year. that more and more competition, less turnover, but year after year, the average annual decline in more than 5%, the highest even more than 10%.

　　G’s argument is not a word for it. To fight against gambling in the environment under the ground, many peripheral Dazhuang originate two large customers or former senior staff in his own, some of them in South Asia or the law does not prohibit gambling loose management of national and regional registration companies, and independent research online betting systems, and other places in mainland China set up offices in many cities and at all levels directly off the assembly line, forming a huge network of organized gambling network. Each one off the assembly line either their own in power, can also be pumped to the on-line declaration layers. In making these underground, where the highest return rates of up to 95%, while Macau has also, however, as 85% -90%. This diversion of customers.

　　So there is a saying: a large village in the World Cup outside of losses actually not as big as people think they deliberately make the race out of control, in order to achieve the purpose of combating underground Heizhuang. Regardless of this statement can only jump to listen to it, for two reasons. First, since the manipulator from making the playoffs and our survey, making a loss is certainly an astronomical number of for-profit organization for the sole purpose of gaming, such losses have been crippled, not a year or two to recover; two, maybe more than half of the underground dealer has gone bankrupt, but there are still a lot of adhering to, and certainly there will be a new injection of capital, new makers appear.

　　Therefore, the professional company of this very unusual game how it was? As the 1998 final 3-0 rout of Brazil in France, like, probably never will be in the form of a mystery. But the objective reality that already exists on the decision at least a tendency: in this World Cup, the football gaming industry will lead to a global "shuffling" movement, only those strong, professional analysis of the large company team the last laugh.